The candidates are in position at the starting line waiting for Labor Day when campaigning typically begins in earnest. BANG! And they’re off! From now until November 7th it will be a no holds barred struggle for your attention.

Of course, when it comes to Senator Byrd, this is where the running analogy ends. The two-caned Senator is so feeble he cannot maneuver to his desk to vote much less run in my hastily contrived allegory.

Things are bound to change between now and then, but I thought I would give my predictions on the chances of the federal and West Virginia state senatorial candidates.

Here are my predictions for the federal level; the Senate will follow later.

Senator Robert Bryd (D) vs. challenger John Raese (R)

John Raese is a fantastic candidate and would be one who would support our troops, help lower gas prices and remove West Virginia’s tax burden. But no matter how good he is he cannot combat the prevailing ignorance among the West Virginia voter to Byrd’s liberalism. Despite the fact that after a gazillion years in office West Virginia is still last in virtually everything, Byrd will return to sleep at his Senate desk.

Raese is also suffering from staffing woes. With very few full-time employees and no campaign manager after firing the first three, he is definitely not 100% effective in getting his message out. Raese seems to be suffering under the impression that all it takes to win is his and his wife’s leadership and a few million dollars. It is after all what got him agonizingly close to beating Rockefeller. This is a gaffe he cannot afford to make. Raese is the pretty face. He should leave operating a campaign to those who know how to do it.

Meanwhile, in the nether regions of obscurity is the Mountain Party’s candidate, Jesse Johnson. As a tree-hugging liberal actor and filmmaker, the only thing Johnson has going for him is his hair.

Byrd wins by 20%.

Representative Allan Mollohan (D) vs. challenger Chris Wakim (R)

Everyone knows about Mollohan getting caught with his hand in the cookie jar. The allegations, which are getting worse by the day, have made Mollohan the red headed stepchild of the Democratic Party who had just debuted their new slogan calling the Republicans the “culture of corruption.” Once everything was discovered about Mollohan and published in all the major national news media, the Democrats could do nothing but retract what was a stupid mantra in the first place.

Wakim has been catapulted from a good man with no chance, thanks to the multi-generational voting habits of West Virginians, to a potential giant killer. With years in office and nothing but scandal to show for it, Mollohan is in big trouble.

The odds are even right now: bad news for a challenger this early in the race. If Wakim doesn’t win by 5% I will be very surprised.

Representative Shelley Moore Capito (R) vs. challenger Mike Callaghan (D)

Let’s face it: Shelley Moore Capito is the princess of the second district. Callaghan is a bald Democrat partisan hack who has less than $50,000 in his war chest. Shelley handily beat her past opponents and there is no reason why she will not do it again.

I predict Callaghan will give his concession speech 5 minutes after the polls close on election night in front of three supporters (two of which will be relatives) in an abandoned warehouse on the West Side. Any reporter assigned to Callaghan’s victory party better watch out: this is their sign that their career has tanked.

Capito wins by, oh, no less than 15%.

Representative Nick Rahall (D) vs. challenger Kim Wolfe (R)

From every report I have heard, Kim Wolfe is a good man (yes, man). But charm and a conservative agenda will not beat the name recognition Rahall has acquired. Rahall is safe for one more term.

Rahall wins by 25%.

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Stay tuned for my State Senate predictions…