There is no doubt Robert Byrd is a formidable foe. After 8 consecutive victories with his toughest opponent getting only 41% of the vote, Byrd should never be taken lightly. While I really believe he can be defeated, Betty Ireland has to do some crucial things to win.

It makes the world go ‘round
It’s called money. Byrd currently has over $1million in his war chest. Ireland needs to meet — if not exceed — that amount to have a chance. To get close, Ireland will need national dollars and donors. They will not contribute until they know Ireland is a serious candidate and can raise serious money inside the state. But to convince the state’s conservative purse strings to give, they will have to see Byrd as beatable and that Ireland can win.

Right now Ireland is in a conundrum: she cannot announce she is running until she has the money and backing necessary to win, but she cannot get the support without announcing she is running.

Not only that, if she announces she will run only to back out because she does not have the support, that will be worse than losing to Byrd outright and her reelection to Secretary of State will be on the rocks as well.

Who’s that?
Name recognition is better than any commercial in the world. Since she was elected into a statewide office, no doubt Ireland has her fair share. But compared to Byrd, it is nothing.

Ireland would have to put her name on a dozen notable edifices in the state and have been around for 40 years to catch up. There is no way she can. She will have to shake every voter’s hand and kiss every baby, but there will still be a decided disadvantage.

The old gray mare, he ain’t what he used to be
Byrd can coast along without difficulty on his cult status and fancy Hollywood commercials alone unless Ireland turns up the heat. To flush Byrd out of Washington, Ireland will have to campaign like no candidate has before and be at every Podunk, every community meeting, every fair, and if more than two people stand together on the street, she should be there too.

That will force Byrd to personally visit the state. I have already pointed out that Byrd is frail; Bob Novak wrote about it in his column this weekend. Couple a large district with the cold of October and November when a campaign really heats up and Byrd’s health may not last.

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Ireland’s youth is a tremendous advantage and money will be her most significant problem. Once she clears that hurdle it is smooth sailing. Oh yeah, except she has to get over 50% of the vote.